5 under-the-radar trends (+ our business ideas)

Hey everyone,

This episode features Sam Parr talking with Steph Smith, known for her work identifying under-the-radar business trends and opportunities. Steph, formerly of Trends.co and now with A16Z and her own project Internet Pipes, discusses her process of finding untapped market potential by analyzing data, identifying legislative shifts, and looking for "generation defining stats."

The conversation centers around Steph's "Digits" database – a compilation of over 100 statistics that signal significant market shifts and potential business ventures, much like how Jeff Bezos recognized the implications of internet growth for Amazon. They explore several specific trends ripe for innovation, including the burgeoning hearing loss market, advancements in drone technology and EVTOL aircraft, the evolving landscape of psychedelics, the impact of AI on the job market, and opportunities arising from pay transparency laws and the convergence of nature and technology.

Here are the detailed key insights and takeaways:

Framework for Finding Trends:

• "Digits" Database: Identifying key statistics that signify major, often overlooked, shifts in demographics, technology, or regulation (e.g., internet growth rate pre-Amazon).

• Market First: Referencing Mark Andreessen, picking the right market is paramount. A great product in a tiny market will likely fail, while a mediocre product in a booming market can be pulled to success.

• Regulation Inflections: Policy changes (like FAA drone rules, OTC hearing aids, psychedelic decriminalization) often unlock massive new market opportunities.

• Second & Third Order Effects: Look beyond the obvious trend. Ask: If X is true (e.g., widespread drone delivery), what else changes (packaging, logistics, local services)?

• Catch Your Own Fish: Steph's "Internet Pipes" aims not just to surface trends but to teach people the methods and tools to find their own opportunities.

Untapped Trends & Opportunities:

• Hearing Loss Market:

  • The Stat: Nearly 2.5 billion people expected to have hearing loss by 2050.

  • Opportunity: Huge, underserved market. Hearing aids are becoming normalized (like reading glasses), driven by tech (AirPods causing damage) and cultural shifts (Loop earplugs making protection "cool"). OTC availability (since 2022) lowers barriers. Current products/apps are often poor quality. Dementia link provides urgency.

• Drones & EVTOL (Electric Vertical Takeoff & Landing):

  • The Shift: FAA regulation changes allow drones Beyond Line of Sight (BLOS) enabling delivery (Zipline, Amazon). EVTOLs represent the first new aircraft category in ~80 years (since helicopters).

  • Opportunity: Rethinking logistics, urban transport, packaging, infrastructure. New businesses needed around operations, maintenance, safety validation (e.g., drone surveillance for 911).

• Psychedelics:

  • The Shift: Decriminalization spreading across states/cities (Oregon 2020).

  • Opportunity: Moving beyond just trauma treatment (vets, etc.) towards guided experiences for major life decisions (career changes, having children), personal growth, and potentially lower-dose applications for general well-being. Huge potential for specialized guides and retreats.

• Jobs & AI:

  • The Data: BLS fastest growing jobs include data scientists, wind turbine techs, solar installers, nurses. Also high growth in legacy service roles (manicurists, massage therapists).

  • Opportunity: Focus AI solutions on industries with chronic talent shortages (accounting, nursing) where AI can augment existing workers, rather than industries with ample talent where AI might cause layoffs/resistance.

• Pay Transparency:

  • The Shift: Laws in >12 states (like CA) require companies to post salary ranges on job listings.

  • Opportunity: Aggregate this publicly available salary data to create a "Glassdoor for open salaries," usurping the need for employee self-reporting which is limited and often inaccurate, especially regarding non-base compensation.

• Nature & Technology Convergence:

  • The Concept: Technology increasingly inspired by nature (biomimicry - Velcro, Kingfisher beak/bullet train) and used to understand it better (Galapagos evolution).

  • Opportunity: Using resources like AskNature.org to find natural solutions/inspiration for product design, materials, branding (e.g., Camel fur properties for clothing).

Final Thought:

Steph Smith provides a masterclass in identifying business opportunities by looking beyond the hype and digging into foundational data and regulatory shifts. The episode highlights numerous burgeoning markets – hearing tech, drones, EVTOL, psychedelics, AI in specific industries, pay data aggregation – demonstrating that significant potential often lies at the edges of major trends or in solving the second and third-order problems they create. It's a compelling call to action for entrepreneurs to develop a framework for spotting these "digits" and building ventures around them.

Find the Guest:

• Steph Smith: https://x.com/stephsmithio

• Internet Pipes: stephsmith.io

Until next time,
The Podcast Notes Team